European Championship Finale: Three Players Tied at 8/10 Going Into the Last Round in Katowice
Eight days ago, we wrote that the European Championship was eating top seeds alive. Kovalenko was down. Deac was down. The field had reset after just three rounds.
It stayed reset. And now, heading into tomorrow's final round, three players sit level at the top on 8/10 with everything still to play for.
The Three Leaders
David Anton Guijarro (ESP, 2656) took sole possession of first place after Round 8 by beating Jan Malek with White. He held that lead through a draw against Suleymanli in Round 9, then drew the co-leaders' head-to-head with Abasov today in Round 10. Anton Guijarro has been the most consistent performer in the field - the second seed playing like a top seed should.
Nijat Abasov (AZE, 2586) surged into contention with three consecutive wins in Rounds 7 through 9. This is not his first time at the sharp end of a major Swiss. Abasov played in the 2024 Candidates Tournament, losing a controversial game to Praggnanandhaa that drew headlines, and his experience at that level is showing here. He caught Anton Guijarro after Round 9 and held the draw on the white side today.
Aydin Suleymanli (AZE, 2653) has been the quietest of the three leaders. Unbeaten through ten rounds, he kept pace with draws against the other contenders and scored a win today to join the tie at 8/10. We flagged him in our earlier coverage as the player to watch, and he has delivered exactly the kind of tournament his rating promised.
Two Azerbaijani players in a three-way tie for first is notable. Suleymanli's Round 9 draw with Anton Guijarro, which let Abasov catch up, was flagged by at least one outlet as a potential instance of federation coordination. Whether that is reading too much into normal chess or a genuine concern is for the arbiters to decide, but it adds an edge to the final round.
The Chasers
A pack of players sits on 7.5/10, any of whom could win the title with a final-round victory and some help from other boards. The group includes:
- Ediz Gurel (TUR, 2635) - beat Haik Martirosyan today to stay in contention
- Maxime Lagarde (FRA, 2621) - the highest-rated Frenchman in the field
- Haik Martirosyan (ARM, 2633) - former Armenian champion, still dangerous despite today's loss
The chasing group is deep enough that a draw among the leaders would not guarantee them the title.
What Happened to the Early Leaders?
Remember Vignir Vatnar Stefansson, the 2512-rated Icelandic GM who led the tournament alone with 5.5/6 at the halfway mark? His late-tournament slide was as dramatic as his early surge. The long Swiss did what long Swiss tournaments do - it rewarded consistency over hot streaks.
Top seed Igor Kovalenko, whose Round 2 loss we covered in our previous article, never recovered enough to challenge for the title. The field was too deep and the format too unforgiving.
What's at Stake Tomorrow
Beyond the title and the lion's share of the EUR 100,000 prize fund, the top 20 finishers qualify for the FIDE World Cup - which is a direct path into the World Championship cycle. For Anton Guijarro, Abasov, and Suleymanli, a European title would be a career-defining result, but the World Cup qualification may matter even more in the long run.
The final round pairings will be critical. In a three-way tie, the player who gets the most favorable matchup - or who faces a chaser rather than a co-leader - has a structural advantage. Swiss pairing rules should put at least two of the three leaders on adjacent boards, with colors assigned based on their history. Expect at least one decisive game at the top.
The Bigger Picture
The European Championship finale is one of three major events converging this month. The Candidates Tournament just crowned Sindarov and Vaishali as challengers. The Chess.com Open playoffs begin next Wednesday. And Norway Chess 2026 is five weeks away.
For the players in Katowice, though, the calendar narrows to a single day. Tomorrow, Round 11, one board, one game. The European Championship comes down to that.
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How Would You Rate Against These Players?
The three leaders are rated between 2586 and 2656. That sounds close together, but in practice it represents a meaningful gap. Drop those numbers into our chess rating percentile calculator and you will see that even among titled players, the difference between 2586 and 2656 is significant. Anton Guijarro at 2656 is the clear rating favorite, but the board does not care about Elo.
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